RajivSpeak

 Is Narendra Modi-led BJP heading for a two-thirds majority in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls? It would seem so, if a recent survey carried out by a US-based “nonpartisan fact tank” in Washington, DC, Pew Research Center, is to be believed. Beating all opinion polls, which give BJP around 200 seats – a little over one-third of the Lok Sabha strength – Pew claims BJP has the support of 60 per cent of urban and 64 per cent of rural India, saying, “New poll finds Indians are disgruntled about the state of their nation, deeply worried about a range of problems facing their society and supportive of new leadership in New Delhi.”

Percent factories operational The latest Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) report, released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India, in March 2014, has revealed that out of a total of 22,220 factories in Gujarat, 17,529 are operational, suggesting that 21.11 per cent of the factories are either “closed” or are “not in operation”. This is higher than the all-India average of 19.33 per cent factories, “closed” or “not in operation”, but is lower than two major states out of 20 -- Haryana (21.42 per cent) and Tamil Nadu (37.95 per cent).

  Gujarat government may be happy that Government of India reports have been saying that Gujarat has fewer unemployed than other states. However, latest reports, including the Academic Foundation’s “India Labour and Employment Report 2014” and the National Sample Survey Organisation’s “Employment and Unemployment Situation in India, 2011-12” report point towards the need to look at the problem of underemployment, which is higher in Gujarat than several Indian states. The Gujarat government has for long been claiming that its unemployment rate is one of the lowest. Quoting the Labour Bureau data, released by the Government of India, it said recently (click  HERE  to read) that Gujarat’s unemployment rate in the year 2011-12 “has the least unemployment rate among all states across the country”. Celebrating it as Gujarat government success, it officially declared, “According to the report, while India’s jobless rate stood at 3.8 per cent during the last fiscal, Gujarat showe...

Raising a controversy, two well-known economists, Prof Jadgish Bhagwati and Prof Arvind Panagariya, known for what have been called “neo-liberal” views, have sought to justify Gujarat riots, saying that they were not a “pogrom” and were not targeted against any particular religious group. Professors at the Columbia University, so far both of them have refrained any comment on Gujarat riots, even as praising Gujarat’s economic growth model, and how, in their view, Gujarat development has led to improvement in the social sector, especially health and education.

Arvind Kejriwal A few days back, I received an email from a non-resident Indian, working as an expert researcher in a US consultancy firm which provides different types of financial services. He said he was googling around on Gujarat development issues and chanced to see my story, based on analysis carried out by an IAS officer who retired as additional chief secretary, Gujarat government, CJ Jose. He was “helping out” Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in any possible way he could, and had followed Arvind Kejriwal’s visit to Gujarat closely. And, he had begun doing “some research” on the Gujarat development model, about which so much was being talked about. I am not revealing his name, as he asked me not to quote him. Referring to my story, his email said, “I know Kejriwal has questioned Modi’s claims of more than 10 per cent agriculture growth, and has said Gujarat agriculture growth has been 1.18 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), whereas you claim the growth to be 0.82 per cent. Could...

Overall Human Development Index “India Human Development Report 2011” was recently updated in view of new facts on income, education and health indices. Despite the fact that Gujarat has improved along with other states, its improvement is not as fast as the national average. The updated version of the “India Human Development Report 2011”, released at a seminar in New Delhi on March 11, 2014, has found that the six states which have low human development index (HDI) – Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Assam – have registered a much better improvement in HDI than several of the progressive states, including Gujarat.  The report goes a long way to suggest that the percolation theory – which presupposes improvement in social sector even as economic growth rate improves — does not really work. Prepared by the Institute of Applied Manpower Research (IAMR), Planning Commission, the updated report states, “Despite lower absolute levels of HDI in poorer states (re...

GSDP rate of growth in 2012-13 at current prices In a major revelation, Gujarat’s rate of growth for the financial year 2012-13 was not only below the national average, but less than all major Indian states which have cared to make public gross state domestic product (GSDP) figures for that year. Latest GSDP figures, revealed by Gujarat’s finance minister Nitin Patel while presenting the  interim budget  for 2014-15, suggest that the state’s growth rate at current prices (i.e. without deducting inflation) in 2012-13 was just 9.52 per cent (rising from Rs 6,11,767 crore in 2011-12 to Rs 6,70,016 crore in 2012-13). This is against the national average (at current prices) of 13.26 per cent.

Legal structure and security of property In a surprise observation, top pro-Narendra Modi economists Bibek Debroy and Laveesh Bhandari have criticized Gujarat -- which they say on “many parameters is a well-governed state” – for experiencing “a steep fall” in its score of “legal structure and security of property rights”. They find, Gujarat’s score on a scale of 0 to 1 for this has been constantly going from 0.54 in 2009 and 0.52 in 2011 to “just 0.39”, pushing its ranking from No 4 to No 9. The main parameters taken into account while analyzing “legal structure and security of property” include “the efficiency of the government in protecting human life and property”. 

  In what many may consider as another “expose” of the Gujarat development model sought to be sold across the country during the Lok Sabha elections, the latest National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) report, “Level and Pattern of Consumer Expenditure, 2011-12”, released in February 2014, has revealed that the average spending capacity of Gujarat households, as reflected in monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE), is lower than 11 out of 20 major states in the rural areas and nine out of 20 major states in the urban areas. 

  Official industrial investment trend data, accessed by Counterview, suggest that much of the propaganda around Gujarat development has little or no basis. While there has been sharp rise in industrial investment intentions, the actual implementation has taken a backseat, and so has employment generation.  At a time when there is an acceleration in propaganda across India about Gujarat’s developmental model, which has allegedly helped attract highest-ever investment in the state compared to any other of state of India, resulting in the claim of a sharp rise in employment, the Gujarat government’s own industries department data suggest that there is a huge gap between intended industrial investments and projected job creation and actual investment commissioned resulting in real employment.  Worse, the data suggest that there has been a sharp deceleration in the rate of job creation as also actual implementation of projects in Gujarat. A major reason for this could be that...

Income generated from a rupee invested into net fixed assets The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), India’s topnotch independent economic thinktank headquartered in Mumbai, has suggested that half-a-dozen biennial Vibrant Gujarat business summits sponsored by Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi to whitewash the impact of the 2002 communal riots have failed achieve their desired result. In a recent commentary, it has said, the Gujarat industrial investment was severely hit “following the 2002 riots”, and the result was, the “net capital formation was negative for three consecutive years following the riots.”

Rattled by its failure to take on hand the work to construct what are called “sub-minor” canals to take Narmada waters right up to the farmers’ fields, the Gujarat government is all set to revive its 2009 plan, devised by then Sardar Sarovar Narmada Nigam Ltd (SSNNL) chairman NV Patel, who said an underground water pipeline grid network alone was the solution of the tangled problem. Patel’s view was rejected later by a high-level committee appointed by the state government, which dropped it like a hot potato, declaring it is not implementable. However, now the state government wants to once again return it to irrigation 18 lakh hectares (ha) of Narmada command.