Gujarat polls: Why I think this time, it's not important how many seats BJP will win

Elections in Gujarat are over. Ever since the they were announced, I was being asked what would be the outcome, whether Aam Aadmi Party will become a major force. My answer was straight and simple: AAP will cut into Congress votes, but it would be its victory if it crosses the double digit mark. Since the votes between AAP and Congress will be divided, in terms of number of seats, BJP, which got 99 out of 182 seats will jump its numbers to around 135, and as for the Congress, it will be around 35.
However, I also believe that this time it is not important how many seats the Congress or AAP are able to get, because as seen last time, a large number of its MLAs, even leaders, left the party and joined BJP, thanks to political machinations of Union home minister Amit Shah. So, even if you vote for the Congress, you never know if the winning candidate will switch over to the BJP.
I strong think this time it would be better to see what percentage of votes the opposition parties together are able to muster, whether BJP's overall vote share goes down. If it does, that would tell on the declining popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his home state. If it does not, then it would mean, the Hindutva-Modi sway remains intact.
So, let's wait and watch... It's a matter of three days for the poll results to come out!